Starmer fails to quell speculation that ministers will cancel Tuesday’s vote on welfare bill given size of Labour revolt
Labour figures think it is increasingly likely that the government will pull Tuesday’s vote on the UC and Pip bill. This is from my colleague Jessica Elgot.
There is a view forming among ministers and PPS’ that the government will have to pull the welfare bill.
However, the message from the centre is very clear it will go ahead regardless of the opposition from MPs because the issue has to be forced.
And this is from the i’s Kitty Donaldson.
There is widespread speculation in Government that No 10 will pull the entire welfare bill before the end of Wednesday, sources told The i Paper
Keir Starmer’s comments this morning (see 9.41am) are not being viewed as a reliable guide to what will happen.
Key events
Angela Rayner faces Mel Stride at PMQs
PMQs is starting soon. Angela Rayner, the deputy PM, is standing in for Keir Starmer, who is at the Nato summit.
Mel Stride, the shadow chancellor, is deputising for Kemi Badenoch.
Here is the list of MPs down to ask a question.
Treasury minister sidesteps question about impact abandoning welfare bill would have on government spending plans
Darren Jones, chief secretary to the Treasury, sidestepped a question this morning about the impact that abandoning the UC and Pip bill would have on government spending.
At the Treasury committee he was asked by Harriett Baldwin, the Tory chair, what choices the government would have if the bill gets rejected. Jones replied:
The first thing to say is of course that the government policy has not changed and we’ll be progressing with our reforms to the welfare system …
If we are in a world where there are any changes to the AME [annually managed expenditure] forecast on the demand-led spending for welfare payments – again that’s something the OBR will forecast independently for us and will be factored into any considerations the chancellor has at the budget later in the year.
The bill is expected to eventually save the government about £5b a year.
According to a report in the Times this morning, Rachel Reeves, the chancellor, has been telling Labour MPs that failing to pass the bill will devastate government spending plans.
Badenoch says it would be ‘pathetic’ for Starmer to postpone vote on welfare bill
Kemi Badenoch has said it would be “pathetic” for Keir Starmer to postpone the vote on the UC and Pip bill. She posted this on social media, as a comment on the tweet from Kitty Donaldson. (See 11.22am.)
This is pathetic. Starmer must not pull this bill. We’ve offered to support him in the national interest if our reasonable conditions are met.
If he pulls the bill, it proves Labour isn’t serious about fiscal responsibility. If Labour backbenchers are too scared to deliver welfare changes that make only limited savings, how can they solve bigger problems like the national debt?
As explained earlier, Badenoch has not really offered to support the bill. (See 9.41am.) Arguably, she would look more principled, and cause more trouble for Starmer, if she did unequivocally support it. Although Conservative backing would theoretically make the bill more likely to pass, it would exacerbate the Labour split, because Labour MPs would be loth to vote with the Tories on welfare cuts.
Starmer fails to quell speculation that ministers will cancel Tuesday’s vote on welfare bill given size of Labour revolt
Labour figures think it is increasingly likely that the government will pull Tuesday’s vote on the UC and Pip bill. This is from my colleague Jessica Elgot.
There is a view forming among ministers and PPS’ that the government will have to pull the welfare bill.
However, the message from the centre is very clear it will go ahead regardless of the opposition from MPs because the issue has to be forced.
And this is from the i’s Kitty Donaldson.
There is widespread speculation in Government that No 10 will pull the entire welfare bill before the end of Wednesday, sources told The i Paper
Keir Starmer’s comments this morning (see 9.41am) are not being viewed as a reliable guide to what will happen.
Timms tells MPs government must cut welfare spending urgently because Pip cost rising by almost £3bn per year
Timms told the work and pensions committee that the government had to cut welfare spending urgently.
Asked by Debbie Abrahams, the committee’s chair, why the government had not consulted on the key cuts in the bill, Timms replied:
Essentially because of the urgency of the changes needing to be made. So if we look at personal independence payment (Pip) – the year before the pandemic, in current prices, Pip cost the then government £12bn. Last year it cost the government £22bn and the cost of it went up by £3bn per year – or £2.8bn per year – last year alone.
And that is not a sustainable trajectory. So there was a need for urgency with the changes.
He said there has been a “much greater propensity to claim benefits, and that’s what’s driving that very, very steep increase in the GDP accounted for by health and disability benefits” in recent years.
Asked if he accepted the rising cost of living was also a factor behind the growing cost of the benefits bill, Timms said:
I think you are absolutely right. I am sure that the cost of living challenges are a very big factor in what’s happened. That people who may well have always been eligible but have not in the past claimed benefit, are now doing, and that’s what’s driven this very substantial increase.
But he repeated that the “current trajectory is not a sustainable one”, adding:
It’s not in the interests of people who depend on Pip for it to be on a financially unsustainable trajectory. We do need to deal with that.
Back at the work and pensions committee John Milne (Lib Dem) asked Stephen Timms, the welfare minister, why the government was confident that the proposed changes could lead to fewer people claiming Pip and health-related UC. He said that in the past, when some benefits have been cut, that has only led to claims for other, related benefits going up.
Timms accepted that this could happen. He said that when the last government got rid of the LCW (limited capability for work) health top-up for UC, many claimants, instead of going to standard UC, which paid less, claimed the LCWRA (limited capability for work-related activity) health top-up, which was worth even more.
He said the government has taken that into account this time, and wants to ensure that people who lose out don’t just move on to more generous benefits. He said it would focus on ensuring help is available to get people into work.
Starmer plays down concern about Trump’s comment implying he is not fully committed to Nato’s article 5
European leaders have never been 100% confident of Donald Trump’s commitment to Nato, and to its article 5 saying an attack on one member should be treated as an attack on all, even though under pressure he normally says he’s signed up. That is because he routinely changes his mind, because he has expressed hostility to Nato in the past, and because he more pro-Russian than any of his predecessors.
Trump triggered another burst of doubt when he declined to express firm support for article five when speaking to reporters on his flight to the Nato summit. Asked if he was committed to article 5, he replied:
Depends on your definition. There’s numerous definitions of article 5, you know that, right? But I’m committed to being their friends.
Jakub Krupa is covering the summit today on his Europe live blog. As he reports, Trump this morning said he was with the Europeans “all the way” when asked about this.
Asked about Trump’s “depends on your definition” comment, Keir Starmer played down concerns about the president’s commitment to Nato. Starmer told reporters:
Nato is as relevant and as important today as it’s ever been. We live in a very volatile world, and today is about the unity of Nato, showing that strength. We’re bigger than we were before, we’re stronger than we were before.
Asked if he would seek clarity from Trump over his commitment to article 5, Starmer said:
I think it’s very important that we stand here as allies, and we do stand here as allies, coming together, absolutely committed to the importance of Nato, particularly at this point in a very volatile world.
When John Healey, the defence secretary, was asked about Trump’s comment on Times Radio this morning, he said he and Starmer trusted Trump’s commitment to Nato and article 5 because they had heard him give that commitment to Starmer, in public, when they met in the White House earlier this year.
Jobs not available for sick people facing benefit cuts, thinktank claims
Debbie Abrahams, the Labour chair of the work and pensions committee, cited research by the Joseph Rowntree Foundation welfare thinktank when she asked Stephen Timms about concerns that there were not enough jobs for disabled people. (See 9.59am.) She was referring a press release the JFR issued yesterday.
The JRF said:
For the first time, JRF combined the number of people who will be affected by the upcoming cuts to health-related universal credit (UC) with the number of people already required to look for work as a condition of claiming UC. We compared this to the number of available jobs in each local authority in Great Britain.
The analysis found that the parts of the country among the hardest hit by the cuts have fewer job opportunities.
That means people on disability benefits who live in places with high numbers of those out of work will have the greatest challenge in finding a job, undermining the government’s wish to drive up employment amongst disabled people.
On average, there are 6.9 people claiming universal credit, including people claiming the health element or searching for work, for every available role.
The north-east has the fewest jobs available with 15.2 people for every post, followed by Wales (12.5) and Scotland (11.3). The south-east had the most jobs available with 2.9 people for every job.
The UC and Pip bill will make the standard rate of UC more generous. But it will cut the value of health-related UC, which is paid to people now working because they are ill, because it is worth double the standard rate, and ministers are worried that this incentives people to claim who might not need it.
Abby Jitendra, principal policy adviser at the JRF, said:
Cutting disabled people’s benefits won’t magically create suitable jobs, particularly in those parts of the country that have long had weaker jobs markets. It’s little wonder so many disabled people are fearful of the impact of the government’s cuts.
As MPs gear up to debate the government’s cuts, we urge the government to change course by protecting disabled people from the harm that these cuts will cause and offering a real plan to create good quality jobs across the country.
Timms claims he’s ‘looking forward’ to debate on welfare cuts bill on Tuesday
At the work and pensions committee Stephen Timms was asked by the Tory MP Peter Bedford if the government still intended to go ahead with the second reading vote on the UC and Pip bill on Tuesday. It did, Timms said. “I’m looking forward to the debate.”
Debbie Abrahams, the chair of the Commons work and pensions committee, is one of the leading Labour MPs who have signed the reasoned amendment that would kill of the UC and Pip bill in its present form.
At the committee she asked Stephen Timms if he was confident that enough jobs would be available for the people currently claiming sickness and disability benefits whom the government wants to get into employment.
In response, Timms stressed the fact that, under the governments plans, the cuts are due to be phased in gradually. People are only at risk of losing their Pip benefit when their claims are reassessed.
Stephen Timms, disability minister, gives evidence to MPs about UC and Pip bill
The work and pensions committee hearing with Stephen Timms, the social security and disabilities minister, has just started. There is a live feed here.
Starmer insists vote on welfare cuts bill will happen on Tuesday amid speculation Labour revolt will force delay
Good morning. MPs are due to vote on the universal credit (UC) and personal independent payments (Pip) bill next week, the legislation enacting the disability and sickness benefit cuts worth around £5bn. As Pippa Crerar and Aletha Adu report in our overnight story, Keir Starmer insisted yesterday that he was pressing ahead with the plans.
But this morning it seems all but certain that, if the government goes ahead with the vote without offering a colossal concession, it will lose. And, if governments know they are going to get defeated on flagship legislation, they normally pull the vote at the last minute.
Here are the key developments this morning.
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The Labour rebellion is growing – even though some cabinet ministers spent yesterday trying to persuade rebel Labour MPs to back the bill. By last night, 123 Labour MPs had signed the amendment, up from 108, plus 11 MPs from opposition parties, all from Northern Ireland. You can read all their names on the order paper here. They are the MPs who have signed Meg Hillier’s amendment, listed under business for Tuesday 1 July.
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Starmer has failed to quell speculation that the vote will be postponed. Despite what he said publicly yesterday, the BBC is reporting a source close to government thinking saying: “Once you take a breath, it is better to save some of the welfare package than lose all of it.” And the Times is reporting:
Privately, some close to the prime minister are preparing to delay next Tuesday’s vote in an attempt to buy time and find concessions to win enough of the rebels around. One minister described the mood in government as one of “panic”.
There’ll be a vote on Tuesday, we’re going to make sure we reform the welfare system.
He said the welfare system had to change:
It traps people in a position where they can’t get into work. In fact, it’s counterproductive, it works against them getting into work. So we have to reform it, and that is a Labour argument, it’s a progressive argument.
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John Healey, the defence secretary, refused to rule out the government making further concessions before the vote in an interview on the Today programme this morning.
The government is in a mess, their MPs are in open rebellion. If Keir Starmer wants our support, he needs to meet three conditions that align with our core Conservative principles.
The first condition is that the welfare budget is too high, it needs to come down. This bill does not do that.
The second condition is that we need to get people back into work. Unemployment is rising, jobs are disappearing, and even the government’s own impact assessments say that the package in this bill will not get people back to work.
The third is that we want to see no new tax rises in the autumn. We can’t have new tax rises to pay for the increases in welfare and other government spending.
We are acting in the national interest to make the changes the country needs. And if Keir Starmer wants us to help him get this bill through, then he must commit to these three conditions at the dispatch box.
There is no chance of the government committing to no tax rises in the autumn, and so, while sounding supportive, this statement is anything but. The bill also fails Badenoch’s first condition, because it would not stop spending on disability benefits still rising (but by less than it would without the cuts). Ministers have made this point to Labour rebels in a bid to persuade them the bill is not as harsh as people suppose.
Here is the agenda for the day.
9.30am: Stephen Timms, minister for social security and disability, gives evidence to the Commons work and pensions committee about the proposed disability benefit cuts.
10am: Darren Jones, chief secretary to the Treasury, gives evidence to the Commons Treasury committee about the spending review.
Morning: Keir Starmer and other leaders arrive at the Nato summit in The Hague. Starmer is expected to hold a press conference in the afternoon, after the main meeting.
Noon: Angela Rayner, the deputy PM, takes PMQs.
Also, Wes Streeting, the health secretary, is giving a speech in Blackpool where he will say that England’s poorest areas will get billions in extra health funding under new government plans to tackle stark inequalities.
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